Reflections....and Oases

The day after...

Obama has run a smart campaign, focusing on the Iraq war during the primaries and shifting to the economy as the summer rolled on. Now, he has to be smart in selecting his team, and be tactical in dealing with the current crises.

While the Obaminauguration show goes on, the business of business also goes on.

Obama has emphasized fair and free trade, which is causing nervousness among many countries.

In an article titled "Obama Victory Provokes Trade Worries In Asia" Tina Wang writes that "Asian countries are bracing themselves for the impact on trade policy of Barack Obama's victory in the U.S. presidential election Tuesday. Obama's win could delay a major trade pact with South Korea and could intensify pressure on China on the related issues of its currency valuation and the U.S. trade deficit.In the weeks leading up to this election, Obama has voiced a tougher stance on trade negotiations with South Korea and China than has his Republican rival, John McCain. In particular, Obama has suggested he would push for a revision of the terms of a historic free trade agreement signed in 2007 by South Korea and the United States, after nearly a year of tough talks, and yet to be ratified by the two countries. The FTA would abolish most tariffs on goods traded between the two countries and would add tens of billions of dollars to bilateral trade.

"Koreans are all worrying about the FTA," said Dong Hyu Yang, an economist at Seoul National University. "Mr. Obama would like to renegotiate the agreement, but I wonder if this is possible from this side." The South Korean government may not be ready to renegotiate, but "it all depends on how tough Mr. Obama will get about this issue," he added.

......One major question will be how President-elect Obama responds to a protectionist-leaning Congress, which Tuesday turned over more Republican seats for Democratic gains. Some Senate Democrats have been vocal critics of China's currency controls and called for stepping up duties on Chinese imports.

Obama said in September that he was concerned about Chinese textile imports and would consider levying restrictions on Chinese goods, as well as promising to exert greater pressure on Beijing to allow the yuan more leeway to appreciate in order to narrow the $260 billion U.S. trade deficit with China. A China Daily editorial Wednesday analyzing the U.S. presidential election outcome responded to some of the concerns of U.S. trade critics: "As a growing market with 1.3 billion people, China is going to consume more goods made in America, creating job opportunities for the US."

According to Bloomberg, Luxury retailers may suffer the industry's biggest reversal of fortune during the holidays as the global financial crisis dents the wealth of the richest Americans.

The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index, which covers almost 90 percent of the economy, fell to 44.4, below economists' forecasts and the worst result since records began in 1997. A private survey indicated that companies axed 157,000 workers last month.